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In our latest manganese monthly report, we discuss the recent ferroalloy price surge and how an absence of downstream demand is holding ore prices steady.
Manganese stocks at Chinese ports remain elevated at almost 2.8 million tonnes as of the 13th July as a result of poor downstream demand. This compares to 2.73m tonnes recorded a week earlier. As we cautioned previously, the market is sinking into a deepening oversupply situation that is unlikely to correct until demand returns, with many placing bets on immediately after July.
A shortage of ferroalloys and increasing tenders from Chinese steel mills offered some support to the alloy market in June/July, but this is not likely to be sustained in the long-term due to weak demand and has not positively impacted the ore market for the same reason.
Additionally, the price of nickel remains elevated at $15,167/tonne as of July 18th. Looking at manganese ore prices for July, UMK’s semi-carbonate material is at $6.54/dmtu, South32’s 45.5%-46% lump material is now offered at $7.10/dmtu, and Comilog’s 44.5% low iron material is at $6.85/dmtu. (All CIF, China).
We expect that ore prices will remain relatively stable throughout July. In fact, sport market prices have fallen in-line with those for future cargo, but demand has yet to materialise to support a meaningful rally…
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