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While critical minerals like copper, cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements constitute the artificial cerebrum of our new world, tin acts as one of its neurons; the interface between tormented humanity and a complex artificial metaverse. The importance of tin in a sustainable future world stretches much further than the billions of tin-plated beer cans (referred to as “tins” in Britain and “tinnies” in Australia) produced every year.
The silvery metal, on the US Geological Survey’s list of 35 critical minerals since 2018, has been described by many futurists as the glue that will bind together the machines needed to interface with the virtual and robotic worlds. The secret is solder, made from tin, and needed as a glue in all new technology.
Investing in tin is thus investing in the future and if you own, like Alphamin, the highest-grade tin mine in the world, your future path is set and solidified, so to speak.
Alphamin’s Bisie Complex
The Bisie Complex made up of the prolific Mpama North deposit and the developing Mpama South project, normally mines tin at an average grade of 4.5%. At times (and it has been the case over the last few months) grades have shot up to more than 7%. It’s unheard of that a mining operation’s tailings can still contain almost 1% of tin extracted from the waste, more than what some other tin projects in the world mine from their virgin rock. Such high grades mean that costs can be kept as low as possible at a time when expenditures at mining companies around the world are soaring.
In a world where robotics, AI, and the IoT will ultimately beat the drum, demand for high-grade tin will increase exponentially, which makes the ore body at Mpama South so much more important in the context of potential deficits and amidst supply chain uncertainties.
Alphamin’s Mpama South project is expected to increase Bisie’s combined tin production from about 12,000 tonnes to 20,000 tonnes per annum. To date, about 2,448m of underground development at Mpama South has been completed of which 988m was achieved in Q3 2023 (Q2: 603m).
The underground development rate increased by 64% during Q3 2023 as additional underground equipment arrived on site and more development ends became available.
The Mpama South adit from surface is expected to connect with the Mpama South underground workings by early November 2023. The year-to-date development meters at Mpama South are in line with Alphamin’s updated two-year underground mine plan to achieve the targeted tin production expansion from FY2024.
This plan requires about 1,200m of underground development at Mpama South during the quarter ending December 2023. The commissioning of the new processing plant may be delayed to January/February 2024.
As the development team at Bisie prepares to up the ante during the last two months of the year, new tin projects around the globe are scampering to get their operations up and running in time for an expected boom driven by the green economy, while the top tier tin mines struggle to remain relevant in a rapidly changing world in which tin has seen a re-awakening.
The tin revival is driven by a realization that the metal will play a pivotal role in new and emerging technologies, while at the same time, it is still used in existing technologies.
Tin in Artificial Intelligence
A new development is the use of tin in the much-talked-about AI space. Elon Musk’s recent statement that “AI is the most disruptive force in history,” and that “we will have something that for the first time is smarter than the smartest human,” will have a few tin pundits smiling, albeit with a tinge of worry about the future of their jobs.
AI is an emerging technology that will be a catalyst for tin growth over the next 20 years. The reasons: Graphic Processing Units (GPUs).
To use AI requires powerful GPUs, and a lot of them.
GPUs are specialized data processors that are necessary for machine learning, video editing, and gaming. They are mostly used in computers and data centers. Tin is used as solder and a protective coating to avoid corrosion of the panels within the printed circuit boards of the GPU.
According to Harsh Chauhan at The Motley Fool, demand for GPUs is growing at an annual pace of 23.5%. Given this reality, one would expect that demand for tin in this application will increase significantly until the end of the decade.
ChatGPT, a large language model trained by OpenAI, is a prime example of the role of GPUs in AI. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri estimated that ChatGPT used around 10,000 Nvidia GPUs to train the model. Nvidia is a company that controls more than 90% of the GPU market.
According to Nvidia, the number of GPUs will increase as the AI model becomes more complex, needs more processing power to incorporate new data, and allows access to a greater number of users.
Open AI is the most prominent player in the AI market, but companies like Alibaba, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Snapchat, Apple, and Baidu have all begun work on creating their own versions, and it is anticipated that many new companies will be formed to tap into this market. The need for GPUs will expand, and therefore the need for tin in this sector will expand with it. The role of tin in a world transition is already critical, and its role will become even more important in the future.
Electric vehicles and renewable energy
The developing battery sector, energy transition, and green economy will give the tin market a substantial boost over the next decade. Electric vehicles use three times more tin (about 4,000g) than traditional internal combustion engines (roughly 1,200g).
With electric vehicle sales set to reach 60% of new car sales by 2030, the demand for tin in this industry is expected to see segment growth of more than 21%.
Tin is also used as a solar ribbon to join solar cells together to form larger solar panels. It thus plays a pivotal role in the growth of the solar photovoltaic market.
According to the International Tin Association (ITA), the solar industry used over 22,000 tonnes of tin in 2022. The ITA further found that the market for tin used in solar photovoltaics would double by 2030. “Therefore, tin will be a key component in global decarbonization through its use in EVs and solar energy in the next decade,” states the ITA.
Traditional uses of tin
But while the focus is on a futuristic, technology-driven world, we shouldn’t forget the current and traditional applications of tin that have stimulated demand for centuries.
Tin has been used with copper (another critical mineral) in bronze alloys for hundreds of years. Copper tin alloys or tin bronzes are known for their corrosion resistance. Tin bronzes, with up to 15.8% tin, retain the structure of alpha copper. The tin is a solid solution strengthener in copper. Tin bronzes are used in bearings, gears, piston rings, valves, and fittings.
Lead is added to tin bronzes to improve machinability and pressure tightness. Lead decreases the tensile strength and ductility of the tin bronzes, but the composition can be adjusted to balance machinability and strength requirements. High-leaded tin bronzes are primarily used for sleeve bearings.
Tin has an extremely low toxicity, therefore tin-plated steel is widely used for food and beverage packaging, as well as cans for chemicals, paints, and dry products. Tin is also used for coating lead and zinc, and bonds readily to iron as an anti-corrosive agent. Copper-based saucepans are often lined with a thin plating of tin; without it, the combination of acidic foods with copper can be toxic.
As the world changes at a rapid pace, tin producers are adapting as quickly as possible. The one thing that hasn’t changed is that tin is as relevant today as it was 200 years ago, and it will remain relevant for another 200 years, and even longer, into a more uncertain future. Alphamin’s development of Bisie is in step with what the world needs right now and will need to double over the next two decades. There is no doubt that Alphamin’s development is inextricably linked to the development of our modern world.
